Written by Brenda Nakalema

A look at the 25 stocks that contributed over half of the S&P 500’s gain in 2021

A Goldman Sachs report indicates the top 5 stocks that have a high concentration of investors’ money. In a shocking …

A Goldman Sachs report indicates the top 5 stocks that have a high concentration of investors’ money. In a shocking twist of events, two of the highest performers aren’t expected to maintain the high performance in the coming year: Apple and Tesla.

Over a third of the S&P 500’s gain was contributed by only 5 stocks- Microsoft corp (Ticker: MSFT) -0.71%, Alphabet Inc. (Ticker: GOOGL) -0.99%, Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL) 0.73%, Nvidia Corp (Ticker: NVDA) -0.05%, and Tesla (Ticker: TSLA) -1.89%. These combined stocks contributed over a third of the S&P 500’s index (SPX) -0.22%, a 26% total return for 2021, ending Dec. 9. Analysts at Goldman Sachs also report that these stocks contributed 51% of the index’s 13% return from April through to Dec. 9.

Interestingly, Goldman said that only 25 stocks accounted for 58% of the index’s gains through Dec. 9. Below is a list of these stocks, along with screens of expectations from Wall street’s analysts for the group as we envision 2022 and 2023.

According to David Kostin, one of the analysts from Goldman, “market breadth has narrowed substantially” over the last few months. This means the largest tech companies have received a bigger concentration of investors’ money by market capitalization.

The list below highlights each of the 25 stocks and their margin to the S&P 500 in basis points. (A basis point is one 100th of a percent). The table also indicates information on pricing- closing prices as of Dec. 14.

CompanyTickerTotal return – 2021 through Dec. 9Contribution to S&P 500’s return for 2021 through Dec. 9 (basis points)Closing Price – 12/14/21Decline from 52-week highDate of 52-week high
Microsoft Corp.MSFT, -0.76%51%271$328.34-6.1%11/22/2021
Alphabet Inc. Class AGOOGL, -0.81%68%224$2,878.14-4.7%11/19/2021
Apple Inc.AAPL, -0.79%32%217$174.33-4.3%12/13/2021
Nvidia Corp.NVDA, 0.34%134%137$283.37-18.2%11/22/2021
Tesla Inc.TSLA, -1.71%42%71$958.51-22.9%11/04/2021
Home Depot Inc.HD, 0.45%58%52$402.20-4.4%12/06/2021
Meta Platforms Inc. Class AFB, -1.80%21%43$333.74-13.2%09/01/2021
UnitedHealth Group Inc.UNH, 1.62%37%39$479.46-0.7%12/14/2021
Bank of America CorpBAC, -0.11%50%36$44.13-9.4%11/03/2021
JPMorgan Chase & Co.JPM, -0.38%29%36$159.13-8.0%10/25/2021
Exxon Mobil Corp.XOM, -1.09%61%34$61.54-7.3%11/08/2021
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class BBRK.B, 0.18%23%32$295.03-0.5%12/14/2021
Amazon.com Inc.AMZN, -1.94%7%31$3,381.83-10.4%07/13/2021
Pfizer Inc.PFE, 3.82%47%30$55.54-0.7%12/14/2021
Wells Fargo & Co.WFC, -0.13%67%26$48.89-7.0%11/03/2021
Chevron Corp.CVX, -0.85%47%24$116.22-2.5%12/08/2021
Intuit Inc.INTU, -1.92%76%24$639.48-10.8%11/19/2021
Lowe’s Companies Inc.LOW, 1.51%63%23$252.46-4.1%12/13/2021
Accenture Plc Class AACN, -0.42%44%23$369.73-3.0%12/13/2021
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.TMO, 1.19%37%22$632.11-5.2%11/26/2021
Costco Wholesale Corp.COST, 1.12%40%21$545.34-2.8%12/10/2021
Broadcom Inc.AVGO, 0.54%36%20$614.91-4.6%12/10/2021
Adobe Inc.ADBE, -1.00%26%20$614.86-12.1%11/22/2021
Danaher Corp.DHR, 0.45%44%20$307.70-7.9%09/10/2021
Eli Lilly and Co.LLY, 9.48%46%19$249.38-9.6%08/17/2021
Sources: Goldman Sachs, FactSet

The table above includes the declines from 52-week highs through Dec. 14, meant to highlight the volatility of rapidly growing tech giants.

For instance, Nvidia shares were down 18% from the peak they’d hit on Nov. 22. Tesla alone has fallen into the bear-market universe three times in 2021 and has plunged 23% from its high on Nov. 4.

A further breakdown of the 25 stocks: sales, earnings and ratings

With the same list as the above, these are the consensus estimates among analysts polled by Factset for sales (in millions of dollars) for the years indicated with projected compound annual growth rates (CAGR)

CompanyTickerEstimated revenue – 2021Estimated revenue – 2022Estimated revenue – 2023Two-year estimated sales CAGR
Microsoft Corp.MSFT, -0.76%$182,593$210,753$240,39614.7%
Alphabet Inc. Class AGOOGL, -0.81%$254,060$296,677$341,67116.0%
Apple Inc.AAPL, -0.79%$369,729$389,037$413,7895.8%
Nvidia Corp.NVDA, 0.34%$25,754$31,175$36,38018.9%
Tesla Inc.TSLA, -1.71%$51,678$73,183$89,63931.7%
Home Depot Inc.HD, 0.45%$148,615$153,285$158,2523.2%
Meta Platforms Inc. Class AFB, -1.80%$117,569$139,805$164,73718.4%
UnitedHealth Group Inc.UNH, 1.62%$286,410$316,412$342,7409.4%
Bank of America CorpBAC, -0.11%$89,268$93,591$99,1805.4%
JPMorgan Chase & Co.JPM, -0.38%$123,128$123,405$130,2702.9%
Exxon Mobil Corp.XOM, -1.09%$294,130$308,304$292,830-0.2%
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class BBRK.B, 0.18%$294,667$294,894$309,2872.5%
Amazon.com Inc.AMZN, -1.94%$470,607$553,097$649,24617.5%
Pfizer Inc.PFE, 3.82%$81,333$92,070$72,748-5.4%
Wells Fargo & Co.WFC, -0.13%$76,024$72,048$75,462-0.4%
Chevron Corp.CVX, -0.85%$155,748$168,114$159,8981.3%
Intuit Inc.INTU, -1.92%$10,714$12,980$14,88117.9%
Lowe’s Companies Inc.LOW, 1.51%$95,152$97,459$100,0802.6%
Accenture Plc Class AACN, -0.42%$52,819$58,906$63,6229.8%
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.TMO, 1.19%$37,210$39,493$42,0536.3%
Costco Wholesale Corp.COST, 1.12%$203,027$222,877$238,7948.5%
Broadcom Inc.AVGO, 0.54%$27,976$30,877$32,5217.8%
Adobe Inc.ADBE, -1.00%$15,957$18,393$21,00014.7%
Danaher Corp.DHR, 0.45%$29,116$30,792$32,4375.5%
Eli Lilly and Co.LLY, 9.48%$27,601$27,774$30,3664.9%
Source: FactSet

Here’s another look ahead, this time at earnings-per-share estimates

CompanyTickerEstimated EPS – 2021Estimated EPS – 2022Estimated EPS – 2023Two-year estimated EPS CAGR
Microsoft Corp.MSFT, -0.76%$8.60$9.85$11.4415.3%
Alphabet Inc. Class AGOOGL, -0.81%$108.65$113.97$130.489.6%
Apple Inc.AAPL, -0.79%$5.64$5.85$6.275.4%
Nvidia Corp.NVDA, 0.34%$4.18$5.08$6.1521.3%
Tesla Inc.TSLA, -1.71%$5.99$8.64$11.4638.3%
Home Depot Inc.HD, 0.45%$15.17$16.13$17.306.8%
Meta Platforms Inc. Class AFB, -1.80%$13.94$14.24$16.9410.3%
UnitedHealth Group Inc.UNH, 1.62%$18.84$21.63$24.5814.2%
Bank of America CorpBAC, -0.11%$3.52$3.19$3.631.5%
JPMorgan Chase & Co.JPM, -0.38%$14.98$12.03$13.23-6.0%
Exxon Mobil Corp.XOM, -1.09%$5.03$5.79$5.595.4%
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class BBRK.B, 0.18%$11.65$12.63$14.1310.1%
Amazon.com Inc.AMZN, -1.94%$41.31$51.54$76.6836.2%
Pfizer Inc.PFE, 3.82%$4.19$5.75$4.877.8%
Wells Fargo & Co.WFC, -0.13%$4.63$3.72$4.41-2.4%
Chevron Corp.CVX, -0.85%$8.36$9.42$8.782.5%
Intuit Inc.INTU, -1.92%$10.56$12.51$14.7018.0%
Lowe’s Companies Inc.LOW, 1.51%$11.71$12.86$14.4010.9%
Accenture Plc Class AACN, -0.42%$9.25$10.48$11.5911.9%
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.TMO, 1.19%$23.45$21.17$23.34-0.2%
Costco Wholesale Corp.COST, 1.12%$11.63$13.06$14.3311.0%
Broadcom Inc.AVGO, 0.54%$28.83$33.53$36.6912.8%
Adobe Inc.ADBE, -1.00%$12.63$14.47$16.8815.6%
Danaher Corp.DHR, 0.45%$9.82$10.16$10.724.5%
Eli Lilly and Co.LLY, 9.48%$8.02$8.13$9.7110.1%
Source: FactSet

Here’s a summary of Wall Street analysts’ opinions about the stocks:

CompanyTickerShare “buy” ratingsShare neutral ratingsShare “sell” ratingsClosing price – 12/14/21Consensus price targetImplied 12-month upside potential
Microsoft Corp.MSFT, -0.76%90%10%0%$328.34$366.4112%
Alphabet Inc. Class AGOOGL, -0.81%94%6%0%$2,878.14$3,333.7016%
Apple Inc.AAPL, -0.79%79%19%2%$174.33$174.350%
Nvidia Corp.NVDA, 0.34%81%12%7%$283.37$341.5121%
Tesla Inc.TSLA, -1.71%43%30%28%$958.51$860.35-10%
Home Depot Inc.HD, 0.45%65%32%3%$402.20$417.164%
Meta Platforms Inc. Class AFB, -1.80%76%22%2%$333.74$398.3219%
UnitedHealth Group Inc.UNH, 1.62%85%11%4%$479.46$490.882%
Bank of America CorpBAC, -0.11%64%25%11%$44.13$49.8313%
JPMorgan Chase & Co.JPM, -0.38%61%32%7%$159.13$179.7013%
Exxon Mobil Corp.XOM, -1.09%39%51%10%$61.54$72.9719%
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class BBRK.B, 0.18%43%57%0%$295.03$332.5013%
Amazon.com Inc.AMZN, -1.94%94%6%0%$3,381.83$4,102.9821%
Pfizer Inc.PFE, 3.82%38%58%4%$55.54$53.67-3%
Wells Fargo & Co.WFC, -0.13%67%33%0%$48.89$54.9012%
Chevron Corp.CVX, -0.85%68%32%0%$116.22$130.3612%
Intuit Inc.INTU, -1.92%83%13%4%$639.48$756.2918%
Lowe’s Companies Inc.LOW, 1.51%73%24%3%$252.46$272.438%
Accenture Plc Class AACN, -0.42%70%26%4%$369.73$383.684%
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.TMO, 1.19%83%13%4%$632.11$682.478%
Costco Wholesale Corp.COST, 1.12%59%35%6%$545.34$551.751%
Broadcom Inc.AVGO, 0.54%84%13%3%$614.91$682.7011%
Adobe Inc.ADBE, -1.00%81%19%0%$614.86$720.6917%
Danaher Corp.DHR, 0.45%82%14%4%$307.70$350.2914%
Eli Lilly and Co.LLY, 9.48%67%28%5%$249.38$279.7212%
Source: FactSet

Key facts to consider;

The two best performers this year are expected to decline in performance next year; Apple and Tesla. Apple is also expected to fall much lower than the other top 5 due to slower sales and earnings growth.

Despite Tesla’s CAGR of 31.7%, FactSet rate the stock a “buy”

Telsa also has the highest expected EPS CAGR through to 2023 at 38.3%, with Amazon.com Inc a close second (Ticker: AMZN) -1.94%, Amazon stock has a projected EPS CAGR of 36.2%. This is followed by Nvidia with a EPS CAGR of 21%.

Pfizer Inc.’s (Ticker: PFE) 3.82% sales are expected to rise in the year 2022 but fall by 2023 to a level lower than 2021. A reflection of the expectation that the pandemic would have come to an end.